Presidential Election Prediction

Presidential Election Prediction

If the Superbowl and Olympics had a baby with the News, it would be Presidential Election Night.
Electoral College - OBAMA: 332 - Romney: 206
Popular Vote - OBAMA: 50.25 - Romney 48.5
Make Your Own Map At Real Clear Politics
It's kind of bold to predict Virginia and Florida for Obama. If I've called those wrong, it will be OBAMA: 290 - ROMNEY: 248. I wouldn't change my popular vote prediction despite such a drastic shift in the electoral college, and that should tell you something. 

My prediction counts on a strong electoral strategy for Obama and a relatively strong national turnout for Romney. We were at a point in the race when a 269-269 seemed more possible. Still, you can bet both campaigns have considered this scenario and have prepared to litigate their way out of a clear loss and into an electoral college tie. 

Recent and some current polling suggests Romney could win the popular vote but lose the election. It could still happen. Republican enthusiasm could have a greater impact on the popular vote than the electoral college because of the GOP's regional strength in the South. 

I nearly hope Obama wins the White House but loses the popular vote. Perhaps there will be enough Republicans bitching to make election reform a bigger issue. 

Colorado will be the closest state followed by Virginia. Wisconsin and Minnesota will be closer than most people think, partially because the latter has gay marriage on the ballot.

Obama is not doing as well in CSA states

Electoral College Tie in 2012?

Think the Florida Recount of 2000 was ugly? An electoral college tie would mean that neither candidate has won a majority. The Republican controlled House of Representatives would elect the President and the Democrat controlled Senate would choose the Veep. 
This could totally happen in 2012. 


A Room That Isn't (Downstairs).

A Room That Isn't (Downstairs).


Five of seven nights since her haughty, rehearsed sneer:

regrettable vignettes intrude well-earned respite;

spoofing banalities that need no parody

even as a new woman feigns sleep in my bed.

Three floors down in an astral amalgamate space:

reconciliation and reigning in. Once again,

hastily forsaking what’s had for what has gone.

Through a slitted eyelid, I see she finds her clothes,

and seeks an assuring and dignified good bye

with pursed lips, I less than respectfully decline.



Personal Statement

Opening Paragraph

I have more poems and a few vignettes to share with you soon, but this is actually what I worked on today. It goes on for two pages and 688 words, but I shall just post an opening paragraph from the draft.

It looked like a grapefruit birthing itself through my torso. Immediately admitted to the hospital, I received emergency surgery for a deadly spider bite. I couldn’t bear to look at the wound then, but photos revealed what looked like a sedimentary canyon of skin, fat, muscle, and blood, ten inches across and two inches deep. As I made daily visits to a wound clinic to be stuffed with stiff, silver gauze, I was fired from my job at a deli and dumped by my live-in girlfriend of three years.


Thank You, Brown Recluse

Thank You, Brown Recluse


She bit my torso while I slept,

feasting away toward my sweetbreads.

Forever ending my career

spearing cold, culled foul carcasses.

Prying from me necrotized love

I could not incise on my own.

Stuffing daily with silver gauze,

opiates, and Scotch; oozing puss.

Giving excuse for frequent steaks

and pondering a life in Seoul

that I never wanted or lived.

And for my thirtieth birthday:

banging upward, a decade younger.

And soon, making some real money

fixing ill devised foreign prose.

She had made my year and my life,

but still, I am glad she is dead.


The Pulsar In Your Skull

The Pulsar In Your Skull


I believe in the power of human intimacy

but I'm willing to settle for less

Everyone’s consciousness is mangled

eventually, capriciously

diffused throughout the multiverse and pulsing in terror

once and for all

Women In Dresses

Women In Dresses

I like women in dresses
I like women with brains.

But they consider it
for a minute or two
upon knowing what I do
and where I lay my head,
how I get around
and conclude, "He's not going
no place good I can see,"
and wonder,

"What's a guy like you doing
in a woman like me?"


September 2011
First Reading: Ypsilanti, Michigan. June 2012.


What's It Take?

What's It Take?

It takes grit to make it in America
It takes more than you have to get what you need.
It takes blood to bleed and teeth to gnaw through bone.
It takes courage to pay down what you can't own.
It takes not only charm but love to Make
Love.
It takes gumption to see what cannot be shown.

It takes sight beyond sight to fly without flight.
It takes not dying to keep on not living
and
It takes luck to build again once all is blown.



Counting Fingers and Shaving Whiskers.

Counting Fingers and Shaving Whiskers

I'm counting my fingers and flicking the lights
in a vain and futile effort to control
a hazed morning
posing as a lucid dream.
But the spinning lingers while smooth skin grows whiskers;

Fighting a beard that wants to grow
is never won

until you die.


State News Writer Willfully Distorts Truth

State News Writer Willfully Distorts Truth

Poorly Formed Opinions No Surprise From Declining Publicatio

I guess it's a good thing that Mr. Thieleman is indifferent to torture, because getting through his most recent column was just that. It was so bloated with generic political invective I could have sworn that it was pieced together from crumpled up pieces of paper and cum-rags from the wastebasket in Glenn Beck's office.

For the record, Obama has:

Stopped the Great Recession from becoming and Apocalyptic Depression.

Saved the auto industry, which is now making green cars and turning a profit.

Reversed the federal ban on stem cell research.

Invested in green energy jobs and ordered new government buildings to be zero emission.

Reformed and expanded federal student aide, saving families $9 Billion.

Funded American cities that struggle with gang violence to fight against it..

Ended federal prosecution of Medical Marijuana users.

Preserved two million acres of wilderness that were threatened by loggers, miners and polluters.

Passed a stimulus bill that helped build and restore highways and railroads, which has been especially needed here in Michigan.

Cut taxes for the middle class and small businesses.

Moved health care further along than any President.

Saved Americans from pirates near Somalia.

Called for an end to "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell", a heinously bigoted policy of discrimination.

Engaged the world in a more thoughtful and effective diplomacy.

Made his administration the most accessible and open in history.

And, he talks to Americans like they are intelligent adults. But even that can fall on deaf ears and numb skulls.


I cannot be sure what Mr. Thieleman and the right-wing ignorentisa have against making sure for-profit insurance is also for-people insurance. The President wants to keep insurance companies from denying coverage because of pre-existing conditions and see to it that access to health care is affordable for all. But, Mr. Thieleman’s ilk doesn’t mind that in the world’s richest country, people have to make the choice between food and medicine or staying alive and going into bankruptcy. That doesn’t happen in France, Germany, Sweden, or the U.K.

Mr. Thieleman would probably say that those countries are socialist. What does he imagine the quality of life is for people in those nations? They aren’t eating gruel or drinking from puddles. The truth is, their citizens experience a quality of life that matches or exceeds that of those in the United States. Drawing examples from what other nations do right isn't unpatriotic, it's something a President does when he loves his country and wants to see it prosper. I for one do not doubt our current Commander-In-Chief in this regard.

“Change” and “Hope” continue. Obama’s approval ratings are a virtual mirror to what Reagan endured politically early in his Presidency. The difference is, this President is charismatic and in addition, possesses a remarkable intellect.

President Obama has tried to work with a radical political minority that has been fueled by an angry and misinformed mob that feels marginalized by having an educated, intelligent, and black President. This group is most represented by people who show up to Presidential events with assault weapons and misspell “Socialism” and “Fascism” on their protest signs.

Despite this, he is the only President to go live on television and take questions from hostile and partisan adversaries in an effort to get something done. Obama will work with people who are willing to work with him, and finally he is calling out people like Mr. Thieleman for engaging in willful distortion and intentional disinformation. I suppose I shouldn’t accuse him of malice; Mr. Thieleman may simply be among those who aren’t educated or intelligent enough to know the difference. In which case, he has my pity.

As for “saving our own," Mr. Theileman doesn't even want the poor in this country to have access to health insurance, nor affordable education, nor a helping hand when they lose their job. The assertion that he wants to take care of people at all is absurd.

We can save the people facing impending doom in Haiti and the people struggling to keep their homes and get ahead in the U.S. Each ambition has a different objective and each mission uses different sets of resources. It's like saying that you can't mow your lawn and also donate to Goodwill.

Recovery at home would go along much faster if Mr. Theilman’s friends in congress didn't insist that The President needs 60 votes to sneeze and that 41 Senate votes justifies the total derailment of legislation directed toward economic recovery and improving people’s quality of life.

Unfortunately, Mr. Thieleman's and his right wing allies operate under the belief that short-term political gains are more important than moving the nation forward.

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This is a response to an Opinion written by Eric Thieleman in the State News on February 1, 2010.

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Slim In The Leg

Slim In The Leg
Revised


Blake was walking up the stairs behind James at the Clinton-Washington avenue subway station. “What's with the hole on the back of your jeans?”

“My other good pair are crusted because of my unfortunate jaunts through heavily salted slush puddles. I really should wash them before the salt starts to eat through them. I can’t believe we got all that snow!”


“I can’t believe it’s gone already. When did you decide that the jeans were unwearable?”

James laughed and looked back. “I guess last Sunday. I knew that I couldn't wear the jeans again without washing them. The filth made me a spectacle.”

Blake scoffed as he shifted his messenger bag. “So why not wash them? You have free laundry at your place, right?”

“Well, you don't want to wash your denim too often. The oils and stuff in your skin makes the denim sort of custom fit you.”


Blake scoffed louder. “That’s gross, man.”

James and Blake walked onto the sidewalk toward the park. The snow had already melted. The ground was wet but the sun was warm and the sky was blue. “No, I insist that this is the best way to wear jeans.”

James stopped at the drinking fountain for some water. “Wear them at least three days a week and wash them at a maximum of once a month.”


“Why?!”

“Because, you start with a somewhat snug fit and they transform into a pair of custom fit jeans. The denim takes on your shape and it fits you better than it could ever fit anyone else. And, in fact, no one else should every wear your jeans. You should be able to wear them until the day you die.”

“It seems like if you wore them that much they would wear out a lot faster, though I guess you never know when you’ll die. Still, this assumes that a persons waistline stays the same through the ages,” said Blake.

“Maybe it's an incentive to age more gracefully. Having old denim to serve as a reference point through the decades?” James said as he pulled the Frisbee from his bag.
“Don't jeans change style over time? Like, wont those just look like cheap old shit in 5 to 15 years? Throw it.”

James threw the Frisbee to Blake. “Some things change, but the kind of fit that works for you never does”.


Blake catches the Frisbee. “Given the presumption that you don’t change.“ Blake threw the Frisbee and it hooked right.

James sprinted to catch the Frisbee. “A little incentive never hurt anyone.” He picked it up from the wet ground and threw it back to Blake.