Presidential Election Prediction

Presidential Election Prediction

If the Superbowl and Olympics had a baby with the News, it would be Presidential Election Night.

Electoral College - OBAMA: 332 - Romney: 206

Popular Vote - OBAMA: 50.25 - Romney 48.5

Make Your Own Map At Real Clear Politics

It's kind of bold to predict Virginia and Florida for Obama. If I've called those wrong, it will be OBAMA: 290 - ROMNEY: 248. I wouldn't change my popular vote prediction despite such a drastic shift in the electoral college, and that should tell you something. 

My prediction counts on a strong electoral strategy for Obama and a relatively strong national turnout for Romney. We were at a point in the race when a 269-269 seemed more possible. Still, you can bet both campaigns have considered this scenario and have prepared to litigate their way out of a clear loss and into an electoral college tie. 

Recent and some current polling suggests Romney could win the popular vote but lose the election. It could still happen. Republican enthusiasm could have a greater impact on the popular vote than the electoral college because of the GOP's regional strength in the South. 

I nearly hope Obama wins the White House but loses the popular vote. Perhaps there will be enough Republicans bitching to make election reform a bigger issue. 

Colorado will be the closest state followed by Virginia. Wisconsin and Minnesota will be closer than most people think, partially because the latter has gay marriage on the ballot.

Obama is not doing as well in CSA states.