The New Hampshire Primary: I Pay Attention So You Don't Have To

The New Hampshire Primary
I Pay Attention So You Don't Have To

DEMOCRATS

Obama: by nearly 40%
Hillary: will come in around 30 or below
Edwards: will hover around 20%.

REPUBLICANS

McCain: 27%(?)
Romney: 24%(?)
Huckabee: 14%
Rudy: 12%
Paul: 10%



Democrats

Obama appears to have been able to turn his large Iowa victory and Hillary's huge loss into a major case that he owns the mantle of change and that he is in fact more electable than Hillary. Let’s call this O-Mentum.

After this, look for the Nevada Culinary Workers' Union to endorse Barry-O and give him a boost in Nevada Primary, which will be held 11 days later on the 19th. Will he win? Who knows, maybe.

Hillary will fight in Nevada, but she might as well not visit South Carolina, because the Democratic electorate is 60% African American, and they are breaking overwhelmingly for Obama, and they will do so exceptionally more so if they see that he won too white-bread states like Iowa and NH.

Hillary is going to look right ahead to the Feb 5. Super-Tuesday states with a retooled campaign with staff and surrogates. She can do well in the North East, and probably in New York .

BUT, if Obama is 3-0 in Iowa, NH, and S.C…. Hillary is going to have a hard time convincing people to give donate to her sinking campaign, and Obama is going to be able to outspend her like mad, and in big States like Missouri, California, Illinois, New York etc. .TV campaigns are important, and to have a TV campaign you need $$S

Also, the black populations in the big cities in those large and not so large states are going to have to want to support Sen. Obama. I am talking L.A., San Francisco, San Diego, San Jose, Chicago, Boston, New York City, St. Louis, Nashville, Memphis, Mobile, Tupelo, Biloxi, Newark, Trenton, New Haven. . .Hillary is going to have a hard time moving urban populations in her favor.

If Hillary is to live another day, she must stop Obama tonight or hope that he ends his own career with some profound mistake.

Republicans

Character Vs. Issues = McCain Vs. Romney

Despite how effing awesome Obama is, the Republican race is a lot more suspenseful.

Because of this, I have about half as much confidence in my GOP projections as I do my Dem projections . . .because I think Romney might do better than this because in GOP post-debate focus groups, undecided Republicans and Republican Independents are breaking for Mitt on the issues of taxes and immigration.

Everyone expects John McCain to win this one, so he kind of has too. The big question today is how many Independent voters want to break for Obama vs. McCain given that they have until they show up at the polling place to choose

If Obamamania has swept NH unaffiliated voters, Romney could live to fight another day in Michigan, and whoever wins Michigan will get to knife-fight Huckabee in S.C.

If Romney finds a way to edge out McCain (which is possible but a long shot)...Huckabee has a great shot at becoming the nominee, because he is going to do well in S.C. and the Feb. 5 redneck States, where his chief Rival will be a weakened Rudy G.

If Romney, Huckabee, Mitt, and Rudy G are dukeing it out until Feb 5. . .we might see a brokered convention, and we might not know who the Republican nominees for President will be until September 2008, when the GOP holds their convention in the Twin Cities, MN.

I pay attention, so you don’t have too.

You’re welcome.